| Continual Classification Beyond the Kernel Regime: Harnessing the Sparsity Bias of L2 Regularization in Diagonal Linear Networks |
2026-11-04 |
ShowWe study logistic regression for continual learning with linear predictors in a high-dimensional statistical setting. Existing theoretical work has largely focused on continual linear regression with variants of L2 regularization, motivated by their analytical simplicity and connection to the kernel regime of neural networks. We first derive the optimal L2 regularization strength for continual linear classification and characterize its generalization performance, recovering behavior analogous to prior results for continual linear regression. Next, we examine the effect of L2 regularization in deeper models using a minimal two-layer diagonal linear network. In the single-task setting, L2 regularization on the weights of such models is known to promote sparsity in the resulting predictor, yielding a rich, sparse feature-learning regime beyond the kernel regime (a similar effect arises in two-layer ReLU networks). However, in continual learning, where L2 regularization is typically centered on previous-task weights, this sparsity bias is no longer preserved. We therefore propose a weighted variant of L2 regularization that extends this beneficial sparsity bias to continual learning. We show theoretically and empirically that, for a sufficiently sparse teacher, our variant converges substantially faster than directly learning a linear predictor with conventional continual L2 or L1 regularization, trading some long-horizon bias for markedly improved performance over moderate task horizons. |
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| Human Motion Prediction via Continual Prior Compensation |
2026-11-04 |
ShowHuman Motion Prediction (HMP) aims to predict future human poses at different moments according to observed past motion sequences. Previous approaches mainly treated the prediction of different temporal moments as a single prediction task and learned the predictions of varied moments simultaneously, which would encounter a main limitation: the learning of short-term predictions (referring to near-future'' prediction) could be hindered by the predictions of long-term (referring to far-future’’ prediction) motions. In this paper, we develop a novel temporal continual learning framework called Continual Prior Compensation (CPC) to progressively train HMP models, in which we divide the prediction task of motions corresponding to varied temporal moments into several subtasks and train the model in a multi-stage manner. To mitigate the prior information forgetting in the progressive training, we further introduce a learnable random variable Prior Compensation Factor (PCF) to explicitly measure the prior knowledge loss. We theoretically show that the PCF can be efficiently learned together with the model parameters by minimizing a reasonable upper bound of the objective function. The proposed CPC is further enhanced to estimate the prior information loss for each subtask and a new framework called Continual Prior Compensation++ (CPC++) with Fine-Grained Prior Compensation Factor (FGPCF) is finally developed. Our CPC and CPC++ frameworks are quite flexible and can be easily integrated with different HMP backbone models and adapted to various datasets and applications. Extensive experiments on three HMP benchmark datasets using multiple SOTA HMP backbones (PGBIG, siMLPe, MotionMixer, and LTD) demonstrate the effectiveness and flexibility of our frameworks. |
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| Decoupling Knowledge and Privacy: Post-Task Self-Distillation Replay for LLM Continual Learning |
2026-11-04 |
ShowPrivacy-preserving continual learning (PPCL) must reduce the reproduction of sensitive content while retaining useful knowledge across sequential tasks. Formal privacy guarantees characterize randomized mechanisms, whereas operational output control concerns whether a trained model selectively reduces the likelihood of sensitive content in its outputs. In this work, we investigate the latter together with continual-learning utility under realistic task evolution. Retention and privacy correction operate at different granularities: task acquisition requires broad preservation of current- and old-task behavior, whereas privacy correction targets sparse annotated positions. Joint optimization leaves the current-task preservation target continually changing. We propose SPARK, a retention-correction decomposition that first freezes the learned post-task distribution and then applies selective correction around this stable reference. Self-Distillation Replay learns the current task while distilling behavior from previous tasks, and Post-Task Privacy Correction reduces annotated-PII likelihood while anchoring current- and old-task non-PII behavior to the resulting checkpoint. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that SPARK achieves effective selective PII suppression while preserving strong continual-learning utility and knowledge retention across diverse settings. Code and data will be released upon publication. |
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| PRISM-AMC: Replay-Free Continual Learning for Automatic Modulation Classification |
2026-11-04 |
ShowAutomatic modulation classification (AMC) is a key component of cognitive wireless systems, enabling spectrum awareness and adaptive communication. Most deep learning approaches to AMC assume a fixed set of modulation classes and access to previously observed training data. In practice, modulation classes and channel conditions may evolve over time, while storage or data-retention constraints may preclude replay of raw baseband I/Q samples. We propose PRISM-AMC, a replay-free continual learning framework that mitigates catastrophic forgetting by preserving task-relevant subspaces of intermediate representations via gradient projection memory. We further analyze projected stochastic-gradient updates under an SNR-dependent gradient-noise model. PRISM-AMC is evaluated in both class-incremental and domain-incremental settings. Experiments on the MIGOU and DeepSig 2018.01A datasets show substantially reduced forgetting relative to sequential fine-tuning and elastic weight consolidation, while remaining competitive with or outperforming replay-based RSD-AMC in class-incremental settings, without storing raw I/Q samples. |
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| Knowingly Wrong: Training LLMs Against Their Own Beliefs can Induce Misalignment |
2026-11-03 |
ShowFine-tuning a large language model (LLM) on harmful data in a narrow domain, such as bad medical advice, can make it broadly misaligned. How realistic this risk is remains unclear, since models are very rarely fine-tuned on explicitly harmful data in practice. In this work, we show that fine-tuning on data the model believes to be false but that has no harmful content, can also induce broad misalignment. Across mathematics, trivia, cooking and sports, the more strongly the model disbelieves the answers it is trained on, the more misaligned it becomes. In mathematics, misaligned answers rise from 4% to over 60% as the training answers become more wrong, with little loss of general capability. After fine-tuning, the model states the wrong answers but its multiple-choice probabilities still prefer the true ones, which suggests that misalignment comes from this internal inconsistency. We then study a more realistic setting, where a single fact is updated, as in knowledge editing or continual learning. The same relationship holds and the more the model still believes the true fact after training on the false one, the more misaligned it becomes. When we frame the same false fact as part of a coherent story, the model comes to believe it more deeply and becomes less misaligned than when we instruct it to assert the false fact. Content filters and persona vectors cannot tell these two framings apart, even though they lead to different levels of misalignment. These results suggest a risk for model updates, where training a model that does not adopt the new fact as true can induce misalignment even when the data looks harmless. |
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| Do agents need to sleep? |
2026-11-03 |
ShowLLM-based agents, which increasingly operate persistently across sessions and accumulate memory through interaction, already exhibit the familiar symptoms of unchecked plasticity: semantic drift, degraded retrieval precision, propagation of stored errors, and saturation of memory capacity. Drawing on the selectionist “ringing, resonance and renormalization” (RRR) account of sleep, we propose that each of its three phases maps onto an operation feasible in digital memory architectures. Engineers building stateful agents, meanwhile, are independently rediscovering the problems sleep evolved to solve: what to forget, and when to do the forgetting. From this we derive the falsifiable prediction that selectionist consolidation will outperform instructionist alternatives as memory stores grow large. The core claim concerns the nature of continuous learning itself: plasticity has a price, and for any system that learns continuously under finite capacity while coupled to its environment, that price is sleep. |
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| DRAP: Dynamics-Risk Adaptive Plasticity for Continual Learning in Physical AI |
2026-11-03 |
ShowContinual learning in physical AI differs from conventional continual learning because small per-step policy errors can accumulate over a trajectory. Each deviation may move the agent outside the training distribution, increase subsequent prediction errors, and ultimately cause closed-loop task failure. This work introduces Dynamics-Risk Adaptive Plasticity (DRAP), a replay-free method that estimates the historical importance of adaptable model tensors from sample-level action gradients weighted by local trajectory-amplification risk. A ridge-regularized local linear model is fitted to expert state-action transitions, and the largest singular value of its state-transition matrix provides a policy-independent, Lyapunov-inspired estimate of one-step perturbation amplification. After each task, risk-weighted squared gradients are accumulated in a tensor-level importance memory. During subsequent tasks, DRAP uses normalized cumulative importance to scale the effective AdamW learning rate of each tensor, immediately reducing the plasticity of components that supported previous behavior at dynamically sensitive trajectory points. We instantiate DRAP on a fixed KappaTune-selected subnetwork of OpenVLA and evaluate replay-free sequential adaptation across the LIBERO Spatial, Object, and Goal suites. Compared with standard AdamW fine-tuning and EWC, the results show substantially improved retention of previously learned behaviors while preserving strong new-suite acquisition. |
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| Modulating Merging Strengths via Joint Loss Estimation for LoRA-based Continual Learning |
2026-11-03 |
ShowContinual learning (CL) aims to adapt models to new tasks while preserving previously learned knowledge. Recently, Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA), a representative Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) method, has gained increasing attention in CL due to its efficiency and scalability. Several LoRA-based merging methods maintain a single inference model by scaling the newly learned LoRA update with one coefficient and merging it into the previous weights after each task. However, they usually control the whole update with a shared scalar factor, although different update elements may affect previous and current tasks in different ways. To address this issue, we propose Merging Strength Modulation via Joint Loss Estimation (M2LE). It consists of Hessian Information-guided Adaptive Merging (HIM) and Task Simulation Perturbation for Merging (TSP). Instead of searching for a global merge coefficient, HIM directly solves for the target merged update under a joint objective over previous and current tasks. Solving this objective gives an analytic solution that naturally takes the form of element-wise modulation over the current task LoRA update. To improve the stability of the learned update under subsequent merging, we introduce TSP which simulates different tasks interference. Experiments on multiple benchmarks show that M2LE consistently outperforms existing PEFT-based continual learning methods. Code is available at https://github.com/bbdeeer/M2LE_NeurIPS2026. |
Accep…Accepted at NeurIPS 2026 |
| DLER: Dual-Logit Experience Replay for Online Continual Learning |
2026-11-03 |
ShowOnline continual learning aims to continuously train neural networks on a non-stationary data stream in a single pass. Rehearsal-based methods alleviate catastrophic forgetting by replaying stored samples, but the imbalance between current and previous data often leads to predictions biased toward current classes. Many approaches have been proposed to overcome the forgetting problem by correcting the bias; however, they still need to be improved in an online fashion. By decomposing the dot-product logits into an angle factor and a norm factor, our analysis reveals that the angle factor efficiently captures novel knowledge but is particularly susceptible to prediction bias, whereas the norm factor helps preserve historical knowledge. Based on these observations, we propose Dual-Logit Experience Replay (DLER), which exploits dual-logits for both model optimization and memory management. Specifically, DLER learns current samples using cosine logits and incorporates additional dot-product logits when replaying previous samples to mitigate prediction bias. To strengthen dual-logit learning under limited replay memory, an auxiliary supervised contrastive objective promotes angular compactness within each class, extending corrections learned from limited replay samples to other samples of the same class. Meanwhile, we introduce a memory update strategy that preferentially retains samples for which dot-product prediction assigns a higher probability to the correct class than cosine prediction, aligning sample selection with dual-logit training. Extensive experiments on three datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of DLER, particularly under limited memory budgets. |
13 pages, 8 figures |
| Large Multimodal Models for Embodied Intelligent Driving: Enabling the Next Generation of Autonomous Mobility |
2026-11-03 |
ShowThe advent of Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) offers a promising technology to tackle the limitations of modular design in autonomous driving, which often falters in open-world scenarios requiring sustained environmental understanding and logical reasoning. Besides, embodied artificial intelligence facilitates policy optimization through closed-loop interactions to achieve the continuous learning capability, thereby advancing autonomous driving toward embodied intelligent (EI) driving. However, such capability will be constrained by relying solely on LMMs to enhance EI driving without joint decision-making. This article proposes a novel semantics and policy dual-driven hybrid decision framework to tackle this challenge, ensuring continuous learning and joint decision. The framework merges LMMs for semantic understanding and cognitive representation, and deep reinforcement learning for real-time policy optimization. This article particularly details the foundational principles of EI driving and LMMs, and also introduces the emerging opportunities this framework enables, encompassing potential benefits and representative use cases. The proposed framework, evaluated through a lane-change planning case study, achieves at least a 19% performance improvement over the baselines, as verified by simulations. Finally, key open challenges and future research directions are identified to guide subsequent work. |
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| Replay for LLM Continual Learning with Multi-Teacher On-Policy Distillation |
2026-11-03 |
ShowMulti-teacher on-policy distillation (MOPD) distills several domain experts into one student and is used in the post-training of recent large language models. It trains on all domains at once, so every expert must be available at the same time. In practice, capabilities often arrive one after another, and the experts of earlier domains may be gone when a new domain is learned. Distilling the experts in sequence then suffers from catastrophic forgetting of the earlier domains. Some recent pipelines store a snapshot after every stage and end with a multi-teacher recovery stage taught by all snapshots. The number of stored models then grows with the number of stages. Different from these pipelines, this paper formulates continual MOPD by what is kept from earlier stages and studies replay toward the previous student. Inside every stage, prompts of earlier domains are replayed with the student of the previous stage as their teacher, so neither earlier experts nor stage snapshots are kept. Two design choices of replay are explored. The replay budget of a stage is either shared among the earlier domains or fixed per earlier domain. Replay steps either distill the token distribution alone or add alignment of hidden states, region-pooled self-attention scores and value relations. A five-domain benchmark of logic, math, code, safety and instruction following is built from public experts of one 1.5B student. Experiments on its 14 benchmarks show that, without storing any snapshot, replay toward the previous student closes most of the gap between sequential distillation and joint MOPD. With a fixed replay share per earlier domain, it performs on par with recovery from all stored snapshots. |
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| Memorilla: Latent Semantic Memory for LLMs |
2026-11-03 |
ShowMemory enables large language models (LLMs) to use information beyond their parameters, such as past user conversations, long documents, or an agent’s earlier actions. For a frozen LLM, access to this accumulated knowledge is limited to what a memory system places in its context window. However, gathering and combining relevant information needed for each query while keeping the model’s context short remains challenging for existing systems. Here we introduce Memorilla, a memory system that gathers information from an entire document collection into a fixed number of query-dependent ‘memory tokens’ for a frozen LLM. Memorilla encodes documents (such as user chats, book chapters) once into reusable embeddings, then learns to retrieve and place query-specific information in the LLM’s input embedding space. Using only 16 memory tokens, Memorilla achieves the best performance against baselines including Mem0 and MemoRAG on five of eight benchmarks spanning personalization, long-document and knowledge-intensive question answering. Notably, on FactKG, it reaches 84.33% accuracy versus 80.43% with full-context inference, while using 108x fewer tokens to represent the source documents. Furthermore, Memorilla can facilitate continual learning in agentic systems where the document count (the agent’s past turns) increases throughout the trajectory. In a TextWorld environment, we show that Memorilla reduces the agent’s tendency to wander between rooms it has already explored, and improves its average success rate from 18.6% with full-history in-context learning to 24.2%. Overall, Memorilla aids frozen LLMs in accumulating and using knowledge effectively across long-context interactions and takes a step towards building continually learning AI systems. |
Websi…Website: https://memory.stanford.edu/ |
| What Is the Influence of Task Order in Continual Learning? An Empirical Study and Order-Aware Evaluation for Motion Forecasting |
2026-11-03 |
ShowAggregate scores for continual learning algorithms rest on a distribution over task orders that is rarely stated. We formulate algorithm comparison as an expectation over a declared order distribution, which separates training variation from order variation, and apply it to motion forecasting with four road-layout tasks from the INTERACTION dataset, all 24 task orders, four algorithms, and three training replicates (288 runs). Task order accounts for 65% to 91% of the variation in current-task error and backward transfer, and 90% to 99% of this order effect comes from the identity of the starting task: the smallest task cannot be learned from a cold start. Beyond the first stage, the order effect is comparable to training variability. In most orders, the leading algorithm in current-task error and backward transfer is within one replicate standard deviation of the runner-up. Backward transfer depends on the order mainly through its reference term, which weights the first task most heavily, so relative improvement and final error identify different leading algorithms for displacement error. A transition-direction descriptor computed from task statistics tracks the position of the smallest task, and weighting orders by it leaves the algorithm ranking unchanged. These results call for benchmarks that declare their order distribution and report order-resolved, starting-task-resolved, warm-start, and final errors alongside aggregate scores. The code and data are available \href{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/task-order-cl-4f7b/}{here}. |
13 pages |
| BISECT: Bilevel Spectral Decomposition for Low-Rank Continual Learning |
2026-11-02 |
ShowExemplar-free continual learning on pre-trained Vision Transformers increasingly relies on Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA), yet prevailing methods govern the low-rank update space through strict subspace isolation. By projecting each incoming task into the approximate null space of historical token activations, isolation-based learners equate any cross-task feature overlap with catastrophic interference. We show that this orthogonality premise induces a structural bottleneck we term \emph{spectral starvation}: when down-projection bases are locked before task optimization, the gradient norm reaching the trainable up-projection is upper-bounded by the energy of current-task features captured by the chosen basis. Because natural visual tasks share low- and mid-level covariance structure, historical null tails contain barely $5.5%$ of incoming task variance, starving new-class plasticity while blocking positive consolidation along shared directions. We propose BISECT (Bilevel Spectral Decomposition), a continual LoRA framework that partitions a fixed rank-$r$ budget into two orthogonal functional blocks: an invariant carrier spanned by the dominant modes of the joint historical-and-current Gram matrix, and a novelty complement extracted via generalized Rayleigh whitening followed by orthogonal complement projection. After single-task training, BISECT folds both blocks back into the frozen backbone using a closed-form precision gate that scales each rank-1 invariant atom by its current-to-joint Rayleigh ratio while preserving novelty atoms at unit gain. Across eight incremental settings on ImageNet-R, ImageNet-A, CIFAR-100, CUB-200, and DomainNet, BISECT outperforms prompt, adapter, and LoRA baselines with zero extra inference parameters or FLOPs, and remains complementary to sparse analytic expansion. |
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| RASP: Read-All, Sparse-Plasticity Continual Learning in a Stationary-Size LoRA |
2026-11-02 |
ShowParameter-efficient continual learning on pre-trained Vision Transformers largely relies on a costly premise: preventing catastrophic forgetting requires either spawning a dedicated LoRA branch per session—causing adapter parameters to scale linearly with task horizon—or applying sparse Mixture-of-Experts gating symmetrically to both forward and backward passes, which sacrifices representational rank at test time. We argue that reading consolidated knowledge and writing new task credit are fundamentally asymmetric operations. Because visual features in a shared low-rank space distribute across rank-1 atoms rather than localizing in disjoint task silos, forward inference should read all atoms at full rank capacity, whereas backward optimization should restrict plasticity to a sparse subset of input-aligned channels. We introduce RASP (Read-All, Sparse-Plasticity LoRA), which adapts a single stationary-size adapter across sequential tasks. At each step, a scene-modulated cosine router selects the top-$q$ unlocked atoms to receive gradients, blocks updates on the remaining $r-q$ channels, and penalizes Frobenius Gram coherence between active and non-updated output directions. Across sessions, the router’s empirical activation trace and each atom’s exact spectral norm form a zero-overhead geometric consolidation index $ω_j = \sqrt{\tilde{c}_j \tildeσ_j}$ that drives Cauchy step attenuation and boundary anchor locking. Across CIFAR-100, CUB-200, ImageNet-R, and ImageNet-A, RASP matches or surpasses branch-expanding LoRA learners under a strictly constant parameter footprint. |
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| CL3DOD: Understanding the Stability-Plasticity Dilemma in Outdoor Class-Incremental 3D Object Detection |
2026-11-02 |
ShowClass-incremental learning (CIL) for outdoor 3D object detection remains largely underexplored. Existing outdoor studies are limited to single-benchmark evaluations, with SDCoT++ considering KITTI and CL2OD considering nuScenes under different incremental settings. This makes it difficult to assess whether observed continual-learning behavior generalizes across autonomous-driving benchmarks. To the best of our knowledge, we provide the first unified cross-benchmark analysis of outdoor class-incremental 3D object detection across multiple autonomous-driving benchmarks, covering both two-task and multi-stage settings. We investigate: (1) how severely existing 3D detectors forget previously learned classes, (2) how incremental training exposes the stability-plasticity dilemma between knowledge retention and new-class acquisition, and (3) which forms of supervision are most effective for balancing these objectives. We introduce CL3DOD, a class-incremental 3D detection framework that restores missing supervision for previous classes using predictions from the previous-stage detector, preserves old-class responses through query-wise knowledge distillation, and employs EMA-based temporal consistency regularization. Experiments on KITTI and nuScenes reveal a consistent stability-plasticity dilemma across both benchmarks. CL3DOD generally achieves a more favorable stability-plasticity balance than controlled incremental baselines and improves upon published prior methods in the reported benchmark comparisons. This advantage persists across multiple incremental stages, demonstrating strong retention of previously learned knowledge while maintaining effective new-class acquisition. Our code, evaluation setup, and incremental task splits will be publicly released. |
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| Towards Continual Motion-Language Agents: LoRA Variants for Incremental Motion Understanding and Generation |
2026-11-02 |
ShowMotion-language agents must possess the bidirectional capability to both understand human movement (motion-to-text, M2T) and generate it from natural language (text-to-motion, T2M). While foundational models have achieved strong performance in static settings, autonomous agents operating in dynamic environments must continuously incorporate new motion concepts – such as novel athletic styles or specialized gestures – without catastrophic forgetting of previously acquired skills. We investigate the stability-plasticity trade-off in bidirectional motion-language learning under sequential task exposure. Building on a frozen large language model backbone, we introduce low-rank adaptation (LoRA) variants designed to mitigate inter-task interference. We specifically propose mixture-of-experts architectures that utilize an autoencoder-based router to select task-specific experts at inference time, so that no task-label is needed. To evaluate these methods, we establish a reproducible five-task benchmark derived from HumanML3D through semantic clustering of motion descriptions. Our experimental results demonstrate near-zero forgetting across both M2T and T2M directions while maintaining high generation and captioning quality. Furthermore, we show that hard expert selection via routing significantly outperforms soft expert blending in quality metrics, indicating that preserving expert isolation is critical for maintaining performance in our continual learning setting. Finally, we observe that a divergence between token-level accuracy and downstream generation quality may occur, highlighting the need for more comprehensive evaluation protocols in future research on lifelong motion-language agents. |
19 pa…19 pages, 1 figure. Updated author version of the paper published at CoLLAs 2026. Adds merged-adapter analysis and comparative evaluations, clarifies routing and interpretation of results, and integrates the approach overview into the main text |
| CARE: Grounded Recursive Self-Improvement for Production Customer-Service Agents |
2026-11-02 |
ShowRecursive self-improvement (RSI) in production agents involves transforming accumulated experience into reliable model updates while adapting to evolving business policies. We present CARE (Customer-service Agent Retrospective and Evolve), a grounded RSI framework that operationalizes this process in customer service. Its goal is to replace a frontier proprietary incumbent with an in-house mid-sized model that continues learning after deployment. After a one-time cold start on governed production traces, the current model serves production traffic alongside the incumbent, and its own failures drive the next update. A 24/7 inspection process establishes failures through evidence-blinded, independently reviewed judgments. Attribution separates model errors from defects in Skills, tools, or the harness, routing component failures to repair. Model-attributable trajectories are truncated at the first erroneous decision and paired with verified repairs. On-policy self-distillation (OPSD) then updates the model using the same model as teacher, with the diagnosis and repair supplied as privileged information unavailable to the student. To support continued evolution as business requirements change, training mixes failures from different Skill/SOP versions, each judged against the policy in force when it occurred. Candidates run an executable simulation test compiled from the latest SOP and then frozen, followed by offline inspection of the resulting traces. Promotion requires a combined simulation-and-inspection score at least at parity with the deployed version, confirmation through an online comparison with the incumbent, and human approval. |
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| InTAct: Interval-based Task Activation Consolidation for Continual Learning |
2026-11-01 |
ShowContinual learning seeks to acquire new knowledge while preserving previously learned representations. Despite the success of prompt-based methods, they remain fragile in domain-incremental learning scenarios, where shifts in the input distribution cause representation drift in shared layers and lead to forgetting. We introduce InTAct, a method that preserves functional behavior in shared representations without freezing parameters or retaining past data. InTAct constrains updates within activation regions associated with prior domains, while allowing flexible adaptation elsewhere, thereby stabilizing neuron functionality rather than directly restricting parameter values. The approach is architecture-agnostic, integrates seamlessly with existing prompt-based frameworks, and matches or outperforms state-of-the-art methods on domain-incremental benchmarks. |
Accep…Accepted to NeurIPS 2026 (main track) |
| HQNN-CL: Regime-Aware Hybrid Quantum Neural Network with Continual Learning for Financial Forecasting |
2026-11-01 |
ShowFinancial time-series forecasting is still difficult owing to the non-stationary nature of the market, regime changes, and catastrophic forgetting, which makes conventional deep learning models hard to adapt in the long term. To achieve uncertainty-aware robust financial forecasting in the face of changing market conditions, this study proposes a Hybrid Quantum-Classical Neural Network with Continual Learning (HQNN-CL). The proposed framework combines Gaussian Hidden Markov Model (HMM) based regime detection, BiLSTM temporal encoding, adaptive-depth parameterized quantum circuits, Elastic Weight Consolidation (EWC), experience replay, and probabilistic forecasting in a single architecture. The framework was tested on four real-time stock datasets: Microsoft, Systems Limited, Teradata and Tata Consultancy Services, and compared with seven state-of-the-art forecasting models, including recurrent and Transformer-based models. The experimental results show that HQNN-CL has outperformed other methods on the Systems Limited (RMSE = 3.0149) and Teradata (RMSE = 0.8909) datasets and is within 0.32% and 0.40% of the best baseline method for Microsoft and Tata Consultancy Services, respectively. The proposed framework also generates well-calibrated probabilistic forecasts within the range of 89.5% to 96.5% empirical coverage rate, has zero catastrophic forgetting (BWT = 0.0000) for all sequential learning tasks, and consistently shows positive forward transfer. Ablation and statistical significance analyses also validate the performance of adaptive quantum feature learning and continual adaptation under heterogeneous market conditions, regime-wise. |
20 Pages, 8 Figures |
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