trump-code

What Is This?

Trump is the only person on Earth who can move global markets with a single social media post. This project applies brute-force computation to find statistically significant patterns between his posting behavior and stock market movements.

Not gut feeling. Not opinion. Pure data.

• 7,400+ Truth Social posts analyzed (3 independent sources, cross-verified)
• 31.5 million model combinations tested via brute-force search
• 551 surviving rules that passed train/test validation
• 61.3% hit rate across 566 verified predictions (z=5.39, p<0.05)
• Closed-loop system: predict → verify → learn → evolve → repeat daily

Key Discoveries

System Architecture

Trump posts on Truth Social
         │
         ▼ (detected every 5 min)
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  Real-Time Engine                                    │
│  Detect → Classify signals → Dual-platform boost →   │
│  Event pattern check → Snapshot PM + S&P 500 →       │
│  Predict → Track at 1h/3h/6h → Verify               │
└─────────────────────────┬───────────────────────────┘
                          │
┌─────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┐
│  Daily Pipeline (11 steps)                           │
│  Fetch → Analyze → Run 551 rules → Predict →         │
│  Verify → Circuit Breaker → Prediction Market check → │
│  Learn (promote/demote/eliminate) →                   │
│  Evolve (crossover/mutation/distill) →                │
│  AI Briefing → Sync to GitHub                        │
└─────────────────────────┬───────────────────────────┘
                          │
┌─────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┐
│  Three Brains                                        │
│  🧠 Opus — deep causal analysis                      │
│  🧬 Evolver — breeds new rules from survivors        │
│  🔒 Circuit Breaker — stops if system degrades       │
└─────────────────────────┬───────────────────────────┘
                          │
┌─────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┐
│  Output                                              │
│  📊 Dashboard  💬 Chatbot  📡 API  💻 CLI  🤖 MCP   │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Model Leaderboard

11 named strategy models, ranked by verified performance:

Dual-Platform Intelligence (Truth Social vs X)

Prediction Markets Integration

Live tracking of Trump-related prediction markets via Polymarket:

• 316+ active Trump markets tracked in real-time
• Dual-track snapshots: Polymarket prices + S&P 500 simultaneously
• Signal → market correlation analysis
• Kalshi cross-platform spread detection

Live Dashboard

→ trumpcode.washinmura.jp

Real-time dashboard showing:

• Latest Trump posts with signal analysis
• Today’s signals and market consensus
• Live Polymarket Trump markets
• Model rankings with performance bars
• 30-second auto-refresh

API Endpoints

Base URL: https://trumpcode.washinmura.jp

Open Data

All data is 100% public. Clone and explore:

Quick Start

# Clone
git clone https://github.com/sstklen/trump-code.git
cd trump-code
pip install -r requirements.txt

# Check today's signals
python3 trump_code_cli.py signals

# Run any of the 12 analyses
python3 analysis_06_market.py    # Posts vs S&P 500 correlation
python3 analysis_09_combo_score.py  # Multi-signal combo scoring

# Run brute-force model search (~25 min)
python3 overnight_search.py

# Start real-time monitor
python3 realtime_loop.py

# Start web dashboard + chatbot
export GEMINI_KEYS="key1,key2,key3"
python3 chatbot_server.py
# → http://localhost:8888

CLI Commands

python3 trump_code_cli.py signals    # Today's detected signals
python3 trump_code_cli.py models     # Model performance leaderboard
python3 trump_code_cli.py predict    # LONG/SHORT consensus
python3 trump_code_cli.py arbitrage  # Prediction market opportunities
python3 trump_code_cli.py health     # System health check
python3 trump_code_cli.py report     # Full daily report
python3 trump_code_cli.py json       # All data as JSON

MCP Server (for Claude Code / Cursor)

Add to ~/.claude/settings.json:

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "trump-code": {
      "command": "python3",
      "args": ["/path/to/trump-code/mcp_server.py"]
    }
  }
}

9 tools: signals, models, predict, arbitrage, health, events, dual_platform, crowd, full_report

Contributing

We need the world’s eyes on this. One team can’t decode Trump alone.

Ways to Help

1. Propose new features — Open an issue: what to track, why it matters, how to detect it
2. Run your own analysis — Clone the data, find patterns, submit a PR
3. Verify predictions — Check daily_report.json against actual market closes
4. Share trading logic — Use the chatbot to share insights (best ones get absorbed)

Ideas We Haven’t Tried

File Structure

trump-code/
├── public/insights.html          # Dashboard (single-file, no build)
├── chatbot_server.py             # Web server + all API endpoints
├── realtime_loop.py              # Real-time monitor (every 5 min)
├── daily_pipeline.py             # Daily pipeline (11 steps)
├── learning_engine.py            # Promote/demote/eliminate rules
├── rule_evolver.py               # Crossover/mutation/distill
├── circuit_breaker.py            # System health + auto-pause
├── event_detector.py             # Multi-day event patterns
├── dual_platform_signal.py       # Truth Social vs X analysis
├── polymarket_client.py          # Polymarket API client
├── kalshi_client.py              # Kalshi API client
├── arbitrage_engine.py           # Cross-platform arbitrage
├── mcp_server.py                 # MCP server (9 tools)
├── trump_code_cli.py             # CLI interface
├── trump_monitor.py              # Post monitor
├── analysis_01_caps.py           # CAPS code analysis
├── analysis_02_timing.py         # Posting time patterns
├── analysis_03_hidden.py         # Hidden messages (acrostic)
├── analysis_04_entities.py       # Country & people mentions
├── analysis_05_anomaly.py        # Anomaly detection
├── analysis_06_market.py         # Posts vs S&P 500
├── analysis_07_signal_sequence.py # Signal sequences
├── analysis_08_backtest.py       # Strategy backtesting
├── analysis_09_combo_score.py    # Multi-signal scoring
├── analysis_10_code_change.py    # Signature change detection
├── analysis_11_brute_force.py    # Brute-force rule search
├── analysis_12_big_moves.py      # Big move prediction
├── data/                         # All data (100% open)
└── tests/                        # Test suite

Disclaimer

FOR RESEARCH AND EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.

This project is NOT financial advice. Do NOT make investment decisions based on these findings.

Statistical Limitations:

• 31.5 million model combinations tested. Even with train/test validation, surviving models may include false positives due to multiple comparisons (data snooping bias).
• Past patterns do NOT guarantee future results. Correlation ≠ causation.
• Trump can change his communication patterns at any time.

Legal: The authors assume NO liability for financial losses. Data sourced from public archives. Not affiliated with Truth Social, S&P Global, or any government entity. Not registered with any financial regulatory authority.

Also By Washin Mura | 和心村的其他專案 | 和心村の他プロジェクト

These are the tools we used to build Trump Code — and everything else.

這些是我們打造 Trump Code 和其他所有專案的工具。

Trump Codeを含む全プロジェクトを作るために使ったツールです。