polymarket-arbitrage-trading-bot

Polymarket arbitrage bot

Advanced analytics and signal engine for prediction market trading on Polymarket.

(🌟click! so your polymarket account will be boosted)

Built for:

• arbitrage detection
• market inefficiency analysis
• real-time trading signals
• spread monitoring
• execution optimization
• automated trading workflows

The system continuously tracks market movements, liquidity, volatility, and pricing inefficiencies to identify high-probability trading opportunities across prediction markets.

Features

• Real-time arbitrage detection
• Smart trading signals
• Advanced analytics dashboard
• AI-assisted trade optimization
• Position and PnL tracking
• Risk management tools
• Telegram integration
• Automated execution support

Designed specifically for fast-moving prediction markets and high-frequency trading environments.

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Future News

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Quick start

Terminal 1 — dashboard

npm start

Open http://localhost:3847

Terminal 2 — paper bot

npm run demo

Edit config/demo-bot.json (your live settings). Use config/demo-bot.example.json as a conservative starter template.

Reset virtual account: delete data/demo-bot/state.json and restart npm run demo.

Switch strategy

Set strategy.name in config/demo-bot.json and restart npm run demo.
All other strategy numbers are loaded automatically from config/strategies/<name>.json (e.g. btc_and_odds → btc-and-odds.json).

Override any single field in demo-bot.json if you want (preset + your value wins):

"strategy": {
  "name": "btc_or_odds",
  "betSizeUsdc": 15
}

Trade only Up or only Down (tradeLeg applies to every strategy):

"strategy": {
  "name": "btc_and_odds",
  "tradeLeg": "down"
}

For btc_and_odds, Up needs BTC ≥ beat + $threshold and Up odds ≥ min; Down needs BTC ≤ beat − threshold and Down odds ≥ min.

Down not trading? Common causes:

1. Old Up position still open — bot shows HOLD (holding_position) and pos U:34. Restart after fix, or delete data/demo-bot/state.json. Stale positions are auto-settled on start.
2. BTC not far enough below beat — e.g. Δ −$9 with Down 89% fails if minBtcDeltaUsd: 15. Lower to 10 or set "btcSignOnly": true (only need BTC below beat, not $15).
3. Down odds > maxEntryOddsPct — e.g. Down 96% with max 88 → odds_too_high.
4. Outside entry window — minSecondsIntoWindow: 200 = only last ~100s of the 5m window.

Preset JSON blocks (copy strategy into demo-bot.json):

• config/strategies/odds-favorite.json
• config/strategies/btc-or-odds.json
• config/strategies/btc-and-odds.json
• config/strategies/contrarian.json
• config/strategies/btc-mean-revert.json

Extra fields by strategy

Your active config (config/demo-bot.json)

This is the file the bot reads today:

{
  "mode": "paper",
  "startingBalanceUsdc": 1000,
  "pollIntervalMs": 5000,
  "stateFile": "data/demo-bot/state.json",
  "logFile": "data/demo-bot/trades.log",
  "dashboard": {
    "enabled": true,
    "label": "Demo Bot",
    "address": "0x000000000000000000000000000000000000d30b",
    "color": "#22c55e"
  },
  "strategy": {
    "name": "btc_momentum",
    "side": "follow_btc",
    "betSizeUsdc": 25,
    "maxBetsPerWindow": 1,
    "minSecondsIntoWindow": 45,
    "maxSecondsIntoWindow": 270,
    "minBtcDeltaUsd": 20,
    "minFavoriteOddsPct": 72,
    "maxEntryOddsPct": 95,
    "takeProfitOddsPct": 100,
    "stopLossOddsPct": 0,
    "respectBtcOnOddsFallback": true
  }
}

What this preset does

In practice: entries need a clear BTC move or very one-sided odds (72%+). After buying, the bot usually holds until window settlement ($1 / $0 per share), not scalping TP/SL. Good for testing “bet the favorite and ride to close.”

Strategy: btc_momentum

Idea: In each 5-minute window, if BTC is clearly above or below the window’s price to beat, buy the side that should win (Up or Down). Optionally exit early on odds (take profit / stop loss); otherwise hold until settlement.

This is for testing — not financial advice.

What the market is

• Each window is 5 minutes.
• Price to beat = BTC at window open (Binance proxy; Polymarket uses Chainlink).
• At window end: Up pays $1/share if BTC ≥ beat; Down pays $1/share if BTC < beat.
• While the window is open, share prices move between ~0¢ and ~100¢ (shown as % on the dashboard).

Signal: which side to buy

Controlled by strategy.side:

follow_btc rules

1. btcDelta = current BTC − price to beat
2. If btcDelta ≥ minBtcDeltaUsd → target Up
3. If btcDelta ≤ −minBtcDeltaUsd → target Down
4. Otherwise fall back to odds — only the side that matches BTC direction:
   • BTC above beat → may buy Up if upPct ≥ minFavoriteOddsPct
   • BTC below beat → may buy Down if downPct ≥ minFavoriteOddsPct
   • Will not buy Up on a negative delta just because Up is 60% (that was the old bug)

Set respectBtcOnOddsFallback: false to use pure odds favorite again.

follow_odds rules

• Pick Up if upPct ≥ minFavoriteOddsPct and Up ≥ Down
• Pick Down if downPct ≥ minFavoriteOddsPct and Down ≥ Up
• Otherwise no entry (no_clear_signal)

Decision flow (each poll)

The bot wakes every pollIntervalMs (default 5s):

Entry rules (no open position)

All must pass:

Exit rules (open position)

With your exit settings:

• Take profit at 100% → effectively disabled (odds rarely hit 100 before close).
• Stop loss at 0% → effectively disabled (only if that side goes to ~0¢).

So most positions settle at window end: winners paid $1/share, losers $0 (same as dashboard settlement PnL).

To enable early exits again, try e.g. takeProfitOddsPct: 92 and stopLossOddsPct: 35 (see demo-bot.example.json).

Paper fills

• BUY: spends betSizeUsdc at current mid → shares added to virtual wallet.
• SELL: sells all open shares on that leg at current mid.
• Settlement: on window change, open shares → $1 or $0 from resolved outcome.

Full config reference

Top-level fields

dashboard block

strategy block

Example scenarios (with your config)

Example A — Entry on BTC move

• Beat $97,000 · BTC $97,025 → Δ +$25 → Up
• Up at 78% → passes minFavoriteOddsPct (72), under maxEntryOddsPct (95)
• Paper BUY $25 Up.

Example B — Down entry (BTC below beat + strong Down odds)

• Beat $97,000 · BTC $96,970 → Δ −$30 → BTC signal Down (or Δ −$5 with Down 88% and respectBtcOnOddsFallback)
• Down 88% ≥ 72%, under maxEntryOddsPct → paper BUY Down.

Example C — No entry (wrong side for BTC)

• BTC $97,005 (slightly above beat) · Up 61% / Down 39% → will not buy Up on weak odds above beat unless Up ≥ 72%; will not buy Down while BTC is above beat.

Example D — Late favorite entry

• BTC flat but Up 88% → odds fallback → BUY Up at ~88¢
• Small upside to $1 if Up wins; large loss if reverses.

Example E — Hold to settlement (your TP/SL)

• Bought Down at 80%, odds move to 60% → no stop (stopLossOddsPct: 0)
• Window ends, BTC below beat → Down pays $1 → profit on trade log BUY row.

Tuning tips

Dashboard integration

When dashboard.enabled is true and npm run demo is running:

• Demo Bot in wallet list (virtual, green).
• Chart markers for paper buys/sells.
• Trade log with per-fill PnL.
• Sidebar cash / equity / session PnL (~8s refresh).

Restart npm start after API changes; hard-refresh the browser.

Code map

Commands

npm run demo
npm run demo -- --config config/demo-bot.example.json
npm start

# Windows — custom config path
set DEMO_BOT_CONFIG=config\my-bot.json
npm run demo

Advanced analytics and signal engine for prediction market trading on Polymarket.

Limitations

• Paper only — no real Polymarket orders.
• Binance BTC vs Chainlink settlement may differ slightly.
• One leg per window (Up or Down, not both).
• Does not copy trades from wallets you track — only public market data.