Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)
The Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) of the Pacific
Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is the home and primary
development institution for GCAM, a multisector model for exploring
consequences of and responses to global to local changes and stressors.
Regional energy, water, land, and economic systems are connected to the
rest of the globe through trade and interactions with environmental systems.
These systems are also connected with each other.
Multisector models such as GCAM capture these
interconnected impacts in an economic framework in order to explore
these dynamic interactions and feedbacks between regions and sectors.
GCAM has been developed at PNNL-JGCRI for over 20 years and is a freely
available community model and documented online (See below). The team
at JGCRI is comprised of physical scientists, engineers, economists, energy
experts, forest ecologists, agricultural scientists, and environmental system
scientists who develop the model and apply it to a range of research questions.
The JGCRI team works closely with the developers of other Earth system and
ecosystem models to integrate the effects of human actions modeled in GCAM
into their research.
Model Overview
GCAM is a dynamic-recursive model with technology-rich representations
of the economy, energy sector, land use, and water linked to a reduced complexity
Earth system model that can be used to explore many science and decision-relevant
questions including the effects of changes in trade patterns, critical minerals
& materials availability, and deployment of energy technologies on human and
Earth systems. Regional population and labor productivity growth assumptions
drive the energy and land-use systems, employing numerous technology options to
produce, transform, and provide energy services, as well as to produce
agriculture and forest products, and to determine land use and land cover.
Using a run period extending from 1990 – 2100 (historical years through 2021)
with annual results computed at 1-5 year intervals, GCAM has been used to
explore the potential role of emerging energy supply technologies and
the consequences of specific measures or energy technology adoption, including
bioenergy; critical minerals & materials; hydrogen systems; nuclear energy;
renewable energy technologies; carbon capture, storage, and utilization and
energy use technology in buildings, industry, and the transportation
sectors. GCAM outputs include projections of future energy and critical mineral
supply, trade, and demand and the resulting radiative forcing and other effects
of 16 greenhouse gases, aerosols, and short-lived species at 0.5×0.5 degree
resolution, contingent on assumptions about future population, economy, technology,
trade and other polices.
Community guidelines for peer-reviewed journal articles using GCAM
This section outlines some suggested language which the GCAM user community
can employ to describe GCAM in papers in peer-reviewed journal articles,
reports, or other public documents using GCAM or versions of GCAM. GCAM is
under continuous development. The suggested language for the opening paragraphs
of a methodology or introduction section of a paper describing GCAM is as
follows:
"The Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) is a multisector model developed and maintained at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI, 2023) <include additional citations to previous GCAM studies as relevant>. GCAM is an open-source community model. In this study, we use GCAM v NN. The documentation of the model is available at the GCAM documentation page (http://jgcri.github.io/gcam-doc) and the description below is a summary. GCAM includes representations of: economy, energy, agriculture, and water supply in 32 geopolitical regions across the globe; their GHG and air pollutant emissions and global GHG concentrations, radiative forcing, and temperature change; and the associated land allocation, water use, and agriculture production across 396 land sub-regions and 235 water basins. <If using GCAM-USA, include without quotes: "This study uses a U.S.-focused version of GCAM called GCAM-USA that includes representation of energy, economy, and water systems for the fifty states and the District of Columbia in addition to 31 regions outside of the United States.”>. The version of GCAM used in this study is available – along with full source code and instructions for use – in a public repository <include citation including link to the GCAM repository with doi used in paper>.
Subsequent paragraphs of the description might expound on particular capabilities, systems, or sectors of focus in the paper. Details in the GCAM documentation page can be used as a reference to develop these paragraphs.
Community users of GCAM might also undertake their own model developments and/or assumptions for papers. It is recommended that these departures from the publicly available version of the model be clearly described. In addition, if these developments are substantial, we suggest making this clear by including an additional phrase (e.g. region name or name of institution) in the name of the model and explicitly calling it out in place of or immediately following the italicized portion in the above paragraphs. For example: “This study uses a modified version of GCAM/GCAM-USA called GCAM-<institution name>/GCAM-USA-<institution name>. GCAM-<institution name>/GCAM-USA-<institution name> incorporates additional details and modified assumptions from GCAM v NN as described subsequently”.
Documentation
Selected Publications
Calvin, K., Patel, P., Clarke, L., Asrar, G., Bond-Lamberty, B., Cui, R. Y., Di Vittorio, A., Dorheim, K., Edmonds, J., Hartin, C., Hejazi, M., Horowitz, R., Iyer, G., Kyle, P., Kim, S., Link, R., McJeon, H., Smith, S. J., Snyder, A., Waldhoff, S., and Wise, M.: GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 677–698, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-677-2019, 2019.
Edmonds, J., and J. Reilly (1985)Global Energy: Assessing the Future (Oxford University Press, New York) pp.317.
Edmonds, J., M. Wise, H. Pitcher, R. Richels, T. Wigley, and C. MacCracken. (1997) “An Integrated Assessment of Climate Change and the Accelerated Introduction of Advanced Energy Technologies”, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 1, pp. 311-39
Kim, S.H., J. Edmonds, J. Lurz, S. J. Smith, and M. Wise (2006) “The ObjECTS Framework for Integrated Assessment: Hybrid Modeling of Transportation ” Energy Journal (Special Issue #2) pp 51-80.
Full list of GCAM publications
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